Food security, climate variability and spatial pattern: Modelling the impact of climate variability on food security and analysing the spatial patterns in Ethiopia.
Background: Climate change, directly disrupting weather patterns and changing rainfall distribution, has become a major threat to food security. Recently, a number of studies attempted to project the impacts of climate change on food security and its components. Moreover, understanding the spatial distribution of malnutrition and food insecurity in a country has paramount importance in terms of prioritizing and geographically targeting interventions. Geographically targeting interventions has been shown to benefit through better performance and coverage. In addition to these, measuring household food security has been an on-going challenge although there are efforts to produce household food insecurity assessment tool (HFIAS) tool for international use.
Objectives: The aim of this study includes developing a statistical model to quantify the impact of climate change on food security and its components, and further analyses the spatial pattern in Ethiopia. Moreover the study aims to validate household food insecurity assessment tool (HFIAS) developed for international use.
Methods: Both statistical (time series) and panel data modelling methods will be used to quantify the effect of climate variability on child malnutrition. A repeated household survey using community based cross sectional study design will be used to analyse the spatial patterns of food insecurity and to validate food security assessment tool.
Significance of the study: Modelling the effects of climate changes on health and nutrition of households will provide important and relevant information for policy actions directed to socio economic development. Moreover, addressing uncertainties and knowledge gaps and the limits that prevail on the current modelling exercise, and bridging the gap on the limitations related to understanding spatial patterns of malnutrition and the local applicability of food insecurity assessment tool would be helpful.
Publications
PhD Thesis: Spatial variations in child undernutrition in Ethiopia: Implications for intervention strategies. September 16, 2016, University of Bergen.
Seifu Hagos, Torleif Lunde, Damen H Mariam, Tassew Woldehanna and Bernt Lindtjørn. Climate change, crop production and child under nutrition in Ethiopia; a longitudinal panel study. BMC Public Health 2014, 14:884doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-88
Seifu Hagos Gebreyesus, Torleif Lunde, Damen H Mariam, Tasew Woldehanna and Bernt Lindtjørn: Is the adapted Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) developed internationally to measure food insecurity valid in urban and rural households of Ethiopia? BMC Nutrition 2015, 1:2.
Seifu Hagos Gebreyesus, Damen H. Mariam, Tasew Woldehanna and Bernt Lindtjørn. Local spatial clustering of stunting and wasting among children under five years: Implications for intervention strategies. Public Health Nutr. 2016 Jun;19(8):1417-27
Seifu Hagos Gebreyesus, Damen H Mariam, Tasew Woldehanna and Bernt Lindtjørn. Spatial heterogeneity and risk factors for stunting among children under age five: A Bayesian geo-statistical model (under review)