Malaria models and temperature

With global warming a reality, we show how the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which Anopheles mortality model is used to make such predictions

Lunde TM, Bayoh NM and Lindtjørn B. How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission. Parasites & Vectors 2013, 6:20 doi:10.1186/1756-3305-6-20

Background It is well known that temperature has a major influence on the transmission of malaria parasites to their hosts. However, mathematical models do not always agree about the way in which temperature affects malaria transmission.

Methods In this study, we compared six temperature dependent mortality models for the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. The evaluation is based on a comparison between the models, and observations from semi-field and laboratory settings.

Results Our results show how different mortality calculations can influence the predicted dynamics of malaria transmission.

Conclusions With global warming a reality, the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which mortality model is used to make such predictions.